Validated in Real Time: Bitcoin Momentum Model
Our bullish call in April 7 shows the power of momentum modeling.
Momentum is strongly positive again, with Bitcoin near $81K and BMI at +1.13.
Key Takeaways
· Bitcoin is trading near $81K in the latest model update.
· The Bitcoin Momentum Index (BMI) is +1.13, placing Bitcoin back in a bullish momentum regime.
· This is a material change from the defensive regime that dominated after the September breakdown near $110K.
· The recovery is meaningful, but Bitcoin remains well below the late-2025 highs around $120K-$125K, so the signal should be treated as constructive rather than euphoric.
Introduction
We introduced the Momentum Model a while back and put its predictions out in the open week by week. Earlier it was giving a bearish signal, until April 7th when we published our article saying momentum has just flipped. This was based on the BMI index flipping position after being negative for months. This signaled the start of a new bullish trend.
Now we have the luxury of hindsight to assess the prediction: the model correctly identified the bullish trend ahead of time.
What is also notable is that the model does not work based off of price levels. When its signal flipped bullish Bitcoin was at $71K. But it had reached that level several times before during the preceding crash as well. And yet, the model had understood those spikes were not real momentum changes and only flashed bullish at the last spike, which was the one!
The Bitcoin Momentum Model converts recent price action into a simple regime signal: bullish when momentum is positive, bearish when it is negative, and neutral when it is near zero. The point is to manage risk by staying exposed during sustained uptrends and getting defensive during sustained downtrends.
In practice, green means add or hold risk, red means reduce risk or avoid adding, and near-zero means be careful and avoid overreacting. That discipline is especially useful in Bitcoin because trends can run much longer than investors expect in both directions.
Bitcoin has recovered from the mid-$60K area to roughly $81K, and the latest BMI reading is +1.13. That is no longer a neutral bounce. It is a bullish momentum reading after a long defensive stretch.
