Navigating the Capitulation Phase

From Shallow Correction to Structural Capitulation.

Outlines:

• Bitcoin has officially breached the True Market Mean ($80.7k), signalling a transition from a fragile, shallow bearish phase into a deeper structural bear market regime.

• The current price action confirms our long-standing cautious bias, mirroring the defensive market structures observed during the cyclical downturns of Q1 2022 and Q2 2018.

• The Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio (90D-SMA) continues to erode; a sustained drop below 1.0 would signal a transition into textbook capitulation where loss realization dominates the network.

• Institutional demand remains parched, with ETF flows maintaining a dominant net outflow regime since October, failing to provide the buy-side support necessary for a trend reversal.

• With the primary support broken, the market is now in a bottom-discovery phase, with the $71k level (the lower boundary of a significant supply air gap) serving as the immediate zone of interest.

• A durable recovery is conditional upon a structural return of organic liquidity and a reclaim of the 3.0–5.0 Profit-to-Loss range, without which the path toward the Realized Price ($56k) remains open.