Leverage Leads, Liquidity Lags

Bitcoin’s rebound is being driven by derivatives and seller exhaustion, while spot liquidity and institutional demand remain hesitant.

Outlines

• Bitcoin broke above the ~$87k ranging zone and reclaimed $91k, driven by seller exhaustion rather than renewed spot demand.

• Long-term holder profit and loss realization has cooled, reducing immediate sell-side pressure but extending structural overhang.

• The supply held at a loss has declined to ~5.8M BTC, mechanically easing loss-driven selling without resolving trend risk.

• Futures markets have reheated, with a short squeeze followed by renewed long positioning and funding rates nearing 10%.

• Spot liquidity continues to lag derivatives sentiment, with SOPR and volume signals remaining subdued.

• ETF inflows briefly turned positive, exceeding $470M, but lack persistence required for institutional demand confirmation.

• The short-term holder cost basis near $98.8k remains the key level separating relief rallies from a structural trend reversal.