Below the Mean, Bulls on Probation
79k Is the Gate, 55k Is the Risk.
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has transitioned into a deep bear-market phase, following a breakdown below the True Market Mean and a sharp move toward the $60k region.
The current trading range, bounded by the True Market Mean (~$79.4k) and the Realized Price (~$55.2k), closely mirrors the structural rhythm of H1 2022.
Profitability remains suppressed, with the log Realized P/L Ratio stabilizing below zero, signaling that loss realization continues to dominate.
A sustained reclaim of the True Market Mean is required to confirm a positive shift in demand momentum, failure to do so leaves downside risk elevated.
Short-Term Holder MVRV Z-Score near –2 reflects persistent stress among weak hands, with no clear signs of recovery yet.
Institutional netflows have remained negative since November 2025, reinforcing a continued de-risking regime.
Until demand momentum, profitability, and capital flows realign, rallies are likely to remain corrective rather than trend-defining
Since setting a new all-time high in early October, Bitcoin has transitioned through three distinct market phases. The first phase was a sharp contraction, with price declining aggressively toward the True Market Mean, a level that was tested repeatedly until late November 2025. This was followed by a prolonged consolidation phase, where price traded sideways slightly above the True Market Mean through late January 2026. Most recently, the market entered a third phase marked by a decisive breakdown, driving price sharply below the True Market Mean and ultimately toward the $60k region.
