Market Structure: Bitcoin remains below key supports, with the STH cost basis ($113.2k) and 128D SMA ($113.5k) marking the critical thresholds defining trend direction.
Liquidity & Demand: ETF netflows turning negative (–4.9K BTC/day) and persistent negative funding rates highlight weak demand and low market liquidity.
Outlook: Unless Bitcoin reclaims the $114k–$107.5k range, downside risk toward the True Market Mean (~$81k) remains elevated, signalling a cautious mid-term outlook.
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